The New England Patriots may very well be the greatest pro football dynasty of all time but one area where they don’t excel is in their impact on the stock market. A Super Bowl Indicator developed decades ago holds that if an American Football Conference team wins the Super Bowl, the stock market will decline that calendar year. If a National Football Conference team or former NFL team, wins, the stock market will go up. Despite this indicator having no … Continue reading
After one of the worst endings to a year in stock market history, it’s easy to despair and bash the market. When the stock market is collapsing, it’s hard to take the long view and be optimistic. But if you do, you’ll soon realize that the U.S. stock market is generally a friend to investors. We have good data on the U.S. stock market since 1926. For those 92 years, including 2018, the stock market has been negative for a … Continue reading
One of the best presents you can give a child is to fund their retirement. And it costs about the same as a modest car. The key to the gift is time. Having a long time to invest is critical but it costs you nothing but patience. First let me explain how this works and then the four ways it could go wrong. The initial step is to fund a Roth IRA. A child must have earned income but you … Continue reading
Digital assets are usually dismissed as a futuristic concern. But every estate I’m involved with now has at least some digital components and they are usually needlessly troubling. We spend much of our lives now in the digital world whether it’s on email or Facebook, Instagram or Twitter. If we have a small business or a profession, some of the value of our business is certainly wrapped up into the digital world. Last night I spoke to the Rockland County … Continue reading
Recently, economic columnist Robert Samuelson wrote a column explaining why so many ordinary Americans perceive their situations as terrible despite what is frequently described as a great economy with record low unemployment. His argument is that these workers are comparing their situations — lack of raises. a struggle to support their families and to get ahead — with that of a recent golden era. Samuelson maintains that the previous golden era was the result of unrepeatable forces. This may not … Continue reading
A wedding is a wonderful thing and lots of excitement surrounds the big day. Often overlooked are some of the things that could be done to make sure this milestone marks a lasting and fulfilling union. As financial advisors, one of the things that gives us the most pleasure and sense of accomplishment is helping a young couple get started on their new life. If possible we like to sit down with them well before the wedding and help them … Continue reading
Prosperity and cyberspace have combined to make dealing with estates more difficult than in previous times. Rather than leaving a mess behind — the proverbial shoebox of unorganized documents — one can make the task of heirs a lot easier some simple and easy steps. Put together a list of all of your financial accounts, the institutions where they are held, current balances and contact information. Add to that list the professionals you deal with and relevant passwords. Many people … Continue reading
Most of us expect that as we age, our capacity for making complex financial decisions diminishes. A professor at Texas Tech, Michael Finke, has compiled research that supports this supposition. From my own experience working with elderly relatives and clients, I believe this to be the case. Most of the “old old” that I’ve dealt with haven’t had the capacity or perhaps the interest in these complicated matters. For many, they simply don’t want to tackle these issues. They are … Continue reading
How Now Goes the Fed? For nearly a decade, the Federal Reserve was largely on the sidelines. After reducing interest rates to close to zero in the wake of the Great Recession, they were reduced to less powerful weapons. In this period they adopted “quantitative easing,” where the numbers are big but the effect less clear. Now the Fed is back. They have repeatedly declared that the economy is sound and it’s time to “remove the punch bowl” before the … Continue reading
Interest in the U.S. national debt seems to have diminished. Its importance has not. Even with extraordinarily low interest rates, interest on the debt takes up one out of ten dollars of federal expenditures. If rates rise to more normal levels, even if the debt stabilizes, interest on the debt could easily double or triple. Recently we came across a book titled Hamilton’s Blessing about the history of America’s debt going back to the founding fathers. It’s instructive that in … Continue reading