The Price of Certainty

As children, we crave certainty and we never truly outgrow this wish. As adults we know that there is no certainty in the world but this is impossible for people to accept.

Investors fall into lots of traps because they fall under the spell of this desire for definite outcomes. In a world gripped by pandemic and economic convulsions this search for certainty is even more compelling.

When so many people are in the market for certainty, the price — paid or opportunity cost — goes up dramatically as well as steers people into the wrong products and magical solutions.

It is unfortunate that at these inflection points people can squander decades of prudence for impulsive actions that color their financial pictures for extended periods, often for the rest of their life.

It’s easy to rationalize panic but when we crawl out from under the bed, the damage has been done and it may be hard or impossible to undo that damage.

One of the most distinguished writers about the Holocaust, Primo Levi, after the war ruminated about his experiences including his time at Auschwitz, which he barely survived. He marveled that one seemingly small error, which led to his capture and deportation, had such grave consequences.

The lesson for us, in much less dire circumstances, is to tread carefully when danger lurks.

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