Nearly Everything I Know About Elections and Markets is Wrong

Many people have strong views about the impacts of presidential elections on the stock market and nearly all of these views are wrong. Like much else about the stock market, normal logic and common sense frequently do not apply.

An analysis of elections over the last century and presidential terms over the last half century century shows surprising results. The analysis, by Dimensional Fund Advisors, showed that presidential election years — widely held to be strong market years — instead are merely average years for the stock market.

Of the 23 elections in the last century, the average market return is 9.5 percent, close to the long-term average for all years of 10 percent. Most of those years have indeed been positive with only four negative ones — 1932 (-8.2 percent); 1940 (-9.8 percent); 2000 (-9.1 percent) and 2008 (-37 percent). The financial crisis of 2008 skewed the numbers  but for investors counting on a good return in election years, that’s not much comfort.

Those negative years had more to do with external events — the intensification of the Great Depression, the onset of World War II; the beginning of the tech bust and recession of 2000 and the Financial Crisis of 2008 — and little to do with elections.

Equally surprising has been the performance of the stock market during presidential terms and  by party. During the last half century there have been nine presidents of which six have been Republicans and three Democrats.

Most investors — regardless of their personal preferences — believe that Republicans are better for the stock market. The numbers don’t bear that out. Over the last 50 years, Republican terms have resulted in a below average 8.93 percent annualized return while Democrats have produced a 14.9 percent annualized return.

During that time, only two presidents have had negative returns, both Republicans. Richard Nixon, during his 5 years in office, had a negative 2.9 percent return which George Bush had a negative 4.4 percent return for his eight years, which included parts of two recessions.

Of course, to be fair, the best record was also a Republican president, Gerald Ford, whose three years featured a 20.2 percent return, far and away the best record. He benefited from the bounce back from the steep 1973-74 bear market which was triggered by the Arab Oil Embargo and spike in oil prices and high inflation.

Second best was Bill Clinton at 17.6 percent. His two terms included the tech led bull market of the 1990s. Number three was Ronald Regan, who started off with a steep double recession but ended with “Morning in America” and the start of the great bull market of the 1980s and an overall return of 15.9 percent. Back Obama was close behind with 15.4 percent for his two terms.

The remaining three terms are also surprising. George H.W. Bush had a return of 13.9 percent and that wasn’t good enough to return him to office, partly because a recession marred the period before his reelection campaign. Just behind was Jimmy Carter at 11.7 percent who president of a period of economic “malaise” but a continuation of the Ford bull market.

Equally surprising is the return of Donald Trump at 10.9 percent (before the recent market decline). This return is a little above average but still 7th of the 9 presidents of the modern era.

In general we give presidents too much credit or blame for the stock market performance during their term. The real lessons are that it’s impossible to predict stock market performance, the long-term returns have been great and many things about the stock market don’t conform to our notions of logic and common sense.

 

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A Bad Week

You know it’s been a bad week for the stock market when: The market has rallied from down 1,000 on the day to down 600 and you feel relieved that it’s only down 600 points.

But 600 points isn’t bad considering the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 4,000 points on the week. That’s a record point total but more important, the percentage decline from the peak, about 14 percent in a little over a week, is close to a record decline.

The new Coronavirus is scary and many people have already died and many more certainly will. Beyond that, commerce and tourism have been disrupted around the world and that, too, will get worse before it gets better.

Even worse, no one can even hazard a good guess as to how bad things will get. A worst case scenario is truly frightening and there is good reason why that prospect has spooked investors.

But should the worst case not take place, the markets may have already discounted the economic damage from the virus. In that case, and if the virus doesn’t trigger a recession, the economy may begin recovering some time this year.

For long-term investors (and there is no other kind. Short-termers are speculators, not investors), this panic likely will just be a blip in the performance of the market over their investing careers. Decisions made in panic rarely serve investors well. It’s no guarantee, but the odds favor staying the course, not pulling the plug.

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The Good Times Keep Rolling

For investors, they say, hope springs eternal and never more so than with the promise of a new year and new beginnings. As 2019 began, though, investors were worried mightily. While stock market returns for the year, as measured by the S&P 500, were only down 4 percent, the fall and winter was dreadful and investors were afraid.

Those fear are now long forgotten after a powerful and steady rally that lifted the market by 31.49 percent, the 18th best year on record in the last century.

But given that 2019 was such a great year, shouldn’t we just be grateful, pack our cards away and sit out 2020. This seems especially prudent given the rising tensions with Iran.

Based on the historical record, these fears are just as unwarranted as the ones a year ago. Nothing in the stock market record guarantees a good year (or for that matter, guarantees anything) but the historical record suggests that on average, investors would be well served by continuing their commitments to the stock market.

We have good stock market records since 1926. Of the 94 years that encompasses, we’ve had 18 years as good or better than last year. Of the 17 times before last year, the average return has been a gain of 11.67 percent. That’s close to the average gain of 12.09 percent for all 94 years.

It’s true that 6 of those 17 years have had negative returns but only one of those years, 1937, in the midst of the Great Depression, had a return worse than a 10 percent loss. In 1937 the S&P 500 declined by 1937 after some failed policy moves including premature austerity. In three of the years, losses were under 5 percent. In the remaining two years, the losses were a little over 8 percent.

What’s more, in fully 7 of the years gains were over 20 percent and in three of the follow up years, the gains were over 30 percent. In short, the good times kept rolling.

Investors are always inclined to be fearful and to be cute about moving money in and out of the stock market. But based on the modern historical record, they’ve do well to emulate Rip Van Winkle, take a snooze instead of action, and they are more likely than not to be pleased with the result.

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Nothing to Fear

In the midst of the Great Depression, Franklin Roosevelt  addressed the fear that was paralyzing America. In his first inaugural address, Roosevelt said that “We have nothing to fear but fear itself.”

There actually was a lot to fear. The economy was in terrible shape, people were dying and lives were ruined. But action was needed and fear got in the way of taking steps to improve people’s prospects.

Often, in less dramatic ways, I find investors’ fears preventing them from taking prudent risks that would improve the lives of themselves and their families.

The fear of a small loss prevents them from seeking a big gain. Even the near certainty of a large loss over several decades prevents them from taking action that has the high probability of generating at least some gain and most likely a big gain.

People have been so programmed about what is “conservative” investing that they aren’t open to taking a rational look at the data and adjusting their investments accordingly.

While Roosevelt has long since been consigned to the history books, the shadow of the Great Depression and the subsequent stock market crash still looms large in investors’ psyches.

We will regularly see large drops in the stock market and inevitably a crash from time to time but that is something to plan for, not something to relegate us to the sidelines forever.

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The Patriots Are Not the Greatest

The New England Patriots may very well be the greatest pro football dynasty of all time but one area where they don’t excel is in their impact on the stock market.

A Super Bowl Indicator developed decades ago holds that if an American Football Conference team wins the Super Bowl, the stock market will decline that calendar year. If a National Football Conference team or former NFL team, wins, the stock market will go up.

Despite this indicator having no actual basis in anything that should influence investor behavior or actual stock market returns, it has been surprisingly accurate in the half century since the first Super Bowl. In fact, it’s worked nearly 80 percent of the time or 4 out of 5 years. You’ll be hard pressed to find a more accurate stock market indicator.

As an AFC team, the Pats are bad for the stock market. But they have also been bad for the indicator, accounting for nearly half of the misses. Overall, though, the Pats haven’t busted the indicator but they have been mediocre for the market. In the five times before this year that the Pats won the Super Bowl, the market has gone up four times. But the one year it went down, 2002, lowered the overall average return to +3.38 for the S&P 500. While that’s a positive return, it’s still less than half of the S&P’s average return of 10 percent over the close to century for which we have accurate returns.

Surprisingly, in the years when the Pats lost, the market has averaged an even lower return of +2.01 percent. Two years have really hurt their returns. In 2008, when the Pats lost to the Giants by 17-14 in Arizona, the market dropped 37 percent. In a wining Pats year, 2002, the market dropped 22.1 percent after the Pats beat the then St. Louis Rams 20-17.

Excluding the two big losing years, the market has returned an above average 11.05 in the eight other years the Pats have appeared in the big game.

The conclusion for this year: the market is already off to a good start but may go up or down for reasons that are far removed from Brady and Belichick. While all of this may seem overly whimsical when big money and people’s lives are at stake, most American market participants do take their pro football seriously. And while there is no reason to assign any cause and effect to the Super Bowl Indicator, people move billions of dollars every day on flimsier evidence than this.

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A Great Casino

After one of the worst endings to a year in stock market history, it’s easy to despair and bash the market. When the stock market is collapsing, it’s hard to take the long view and be optimistic. But if you do, you’ll soon realize that the U.S. stock market is generally a friend to investors.

We have good data on the U.S. stock market since 1926. For those 92 years, including 2018, the stock market has been negative for a calendar year only 25 times. That’s using the Standard and Poor’s 500 as a measure for the stock market and including dividends. Of those 25 negative years, 15 years, including 2018, had losses of 10 percent or less. In 6 of those years, the market declined by less than 5 percent. In only 3 of the 92 years has the S&P declined by 30 percent or more. Only 4 times has the market declined for a second consecutive year.

The 4 bad times — with two or more consecutive years of losses — were during the Great Depression (1929 to 1932), the start of World War II (1939-41), the deep recession in the 70s after the Arab Oil Embargo and Watergate (1973-74) and the recession and tech collapse around 9/11 (2000 to 2002).

Other than those 4 times, the broad market has never had two or more straight declines. Of the 92 years, we’ve had 67 positive years or 73 percent of the time.

Following the most recent financial crisis, in 2009, after the Great Recession, the year started terribly, down more than 20 percent in the first few months but ended up by 26.5 percent. In 1987 following the crash that included the single worst day in U.S. stock market history, the market closed the year up by 5.2 percent.

Most people think of the stock market as a casino. But if you are a long-term investor, over the last century, you are the house and 3 out of 4 years, you are a winner, often by a large amount. I like those odds. Over the course of my 36 year investment career, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has gone from 800 to more than 23,000 as of year-end 2018. If you ask me, that’s a great casino and no cause for alarm just because of the recent unpleasantness.

 

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Good News for Investors

Recently, economic columnist Robert Samuelson wrote a column explaining why so many ordinary Americans perceive their situations as terrible despite what is frequently described as a great economy with record low unemployment.

His argument is that these workers are comparing their situations — lack of raises. a struggle to support their families and to get ahead — with that of a recent golden era. Samuelson maintains that the previous golden era was the result of unrepeatable forces.

This may not seem like good news for investors but their fortunes are not closely tied to workers. The long sluggish recovery that has lasted nearly 10 years is better for investors than the boom/bust of earlier, more robust recoveries with stronger growth but more frequent recessions. Often, what’s good for workers is also good for investors but not always and this may be one of those cases.

What economists at Pimco have termed “The New Normal” may leave workers pining for a bygone era but investors may applaud. Investors have been fretting that the Great Bull Market that began in August, 1982 and carried the Dow Jones Industrial Average to 10,000 in the late 1990s before resuming in March, 2009, may be nearing its end.

Instead, despite trade wars and unraveling of international alliances and general disquiet and upheavel, the long-term picture for investors might remain bright.https://wapo.st/2mClCV4?tid=ss_mail&utm_term=.5a152b7d96be

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The Danger of Market Timing

The Three Dangerous Times

The three particularly dangerous times for investors: when markets go up, when they go down and when they are flat.

For the last two years, U.S. markets have been in a narrow trading range. Some days the market is up a lot, some days it’s down big. But overall, for two years the broad market is close to flat — up 3 percent a year — a third of the long-term average.

During a long flat period, investors get bored and are often up to mischief, searching for alternatives that promise much and mask danger.

In bear markets — the market often plunges quickly –and  investors are prone to panic and do things that imperil their finances for many years.

When the market is doing well — bull markets — people get exuberant and overconfident and may take on greater risks and obligations than they intend. This sets them up for failure in the next cycle.

Given this bleak picture, what should investors do to improve their odds of success? Investors need to be patient, avoid emotional decisions and think long-term.

None of this is easy but it’s important for a successful investment experience.

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The Sun Will Shine Again

The U.S. stock market is off to its worst start ever — down nearly 12 percent in just three weeks. Standard & Poors searched records back to 1897 and couldn’t find anything worse.

While the market has been drifting lower since summer — including a brief but scary decline in late August — this drop has seemingly come out of nowhere and is unremitting in its furor.

Yesterday, the Dow dropped 550 points by midday before rallying sharply. While there are always things to worry about, this seems to be the bear market about nothing.

The Chinese economy, the second largest in the world, may be getting unhinged. And the oil market has gone from boom to busted in 18 months but hey, nobody’s perfect.

If it weren’t for these minor issues, the outlook might seem bright. Job growth has been strong in the U.S. and corporate balance sheets are in the best shape in years.

Worldwide, corporations and investors are awash in cash and looking desperately for places to stash it (no place more frantic than Colorado where legal marijuana growers can’t access the banking system).

So what’s an investor to do? It’s usually best to hunker down and not panic. And if you feel like panicking, turn off the TV and the Internet and take a walk. You’ll feel better and in the long run, your portfolio will thank you.

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Dow Jones Changes

Apple Goes Into Dow

This week Apple Computer becomes part of the prestigious Dow Jones Industrial Average. The Dow is made up of 30 stocks and since its creation in 1896 has become the single most widely cited indicator of stock market performance. And yet its quirky structure shows the dangers of relying on any one indicator to mark investment performance. The Dow Jones average is based on just price, not the total value of the companies. Once a stock splits, its weight in the Dow goes down even though the value stays the same. After some moves in the Dow this week Goldman Sachs will have the heaviest weight in the average because it has the highest price. Moves in the price of Goldman stock will have a disproportionate affect on the average. Often the Dow moves in sync with other major averages such as the S&P 500 but many times they have widely divergent moves. While the Dow is a good shorthand way of following the stock market, keep in mind that its only a snapshot of a small number of stocks and there are thousands of other great companies.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-03-19/never-mind-apple-it-s-the-goldman-sachs-era-in-dow-industrials

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