Less is More Sometimes

As a result of the pandemic and economic downturn, there are now two kinds of Americans: those who are spending less because they have less money and those who are spending less because they don’t have anywhere to spend their money.

For an economy that is two-thirds driven by consumer spending, that doesn’t bode well for a quick recovery and overall statistics. But despite the crude economic measures we employ, the true purposes of an economy are to satisfy people’s needs and wants. If we possessed better statistics, those measures might paint a different picture.

For the first group, suffering will be epic — high joblessness lasted 6 to 8 years after the Great Recession and food insecurity remained high even longer —  and the bleak statistics will adequately measure their distress.

But for the other 75 to 90 percent of Americans, the picture could be quite different. Economists assume that every dollar spent is for something a consumer wanted and if they can’t have it or have to substitute something else, their satisfaction is diminished. That, of course, is a good shorthand and adequate in normal times.

What we are living through is anything but normal and normal statistics don’t capture our current experience. As half or more of the population lives through an enforced idleness, satisfaction has to come through different means. A leisurely trip to the mall is out. A free zoom call with distant friends and relatives is in. People are reaching out more and spending less on leisure pursuits, apparel, fixing up homes and myriad other things.

Many people remind us that “if you have your health, you have everything.” For the million or more people who have contracted the virus and for the 80,000 or so who have died, their health is compromised or they have succumbed. Stress has soared and with it crabbiness, abuse, substance overuse and mental illness.

For others, who retain their health, many have regained an appreciation for the simple pleasures of life that do not carry dollar signs. For large segments of the population, such as the vulnerable elderly, their first impulse after a murky loosening or even an all clear signal will not be to shop until they drop. Their first, second and third impulse may be caution and to keep the purse strings tightly clamped.

The result could be continued high unemployment, the failure of many already shaky businesses, and continued weakness in measured Gross Domestic Product and other key traditional economic measures.

But what of true happiness? That’s a harder thing to measure. Many people hanker for a simpler time. Now that it has been delivered to their doorstop, they may find that they don’t like that imaginary simpler time. But others may find that spending and happiness are not the same and while traditional measurements of economic activity continue to look dreadful, they are fulfilled and much happier than the economists believe that they should be.

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