On Monday, the markets panicked, resulting in the Dow Jones having its biggest point drop in history and one of its biggest losses in percentage terms. Bond yields just about vanished while oil prices dropped by one-third. More than one commentator said that if you think you know what’s going on, you’re not paying attention.
The elephant in the room is the rapidly spreading Coronaivurs, COVD 19. How widespread and how deadly it becomes are still huge unknowns. What we know for sure is it is hugely disruptive to the global economy and it is inducing fear way out of proportion to what has happened already. It may become a huge and deadly global pandemic and if it does the hype is justified.
So what is an investor to do? If you have the wherewithal to wait it out, you stand a high probability of winning. Long term investors usually (but not always) win. Ebola, Swine Flu and MERS vanished while the markets left them in their wake. Certainly COVD 19 could be orders of magnitude worse. Even so, it’s likely that vaccines and treatments will emerge over the next year or two and eventually the disease will get under control.
We don’t know the human or economic toll and it could be substantial. But if an investor has a well thought out financial plan, he should stick to it. The odds are in his favor.
Emotions destroy more investors than diseases. I know many investors who panicked in 2009 and that momentary lapse has adversely affected the rest of their life. People who think the stock market is dangerous tend to make it a self-fulfilling prophecy to their detriment.
In the meantime, do what I did on an otherwise beautiful day. Take a walk and wait until the wave of panic goes away and leave your portfolio untouched to recover on its own. Nature has great restorative powers, especially for portfolios.